Avego’s James Shields shares some of his insightful and sometimes bizarre opinions and analysis of technology, life and everything in between.
A couple of things have been rattling around my mind over the last few weeks.
- In 1993 Bill Clinton was the new US president, I had no internet access, was using a shared 386 PC to write up my college projects, I bought books in a bookshop, I cycled to college because I didn’t own a car and stayed in touch with people by using a phone attached to a wall;
- In 2003 George W Bush had just won a second term. I accessed the web through a Pentium P4 desktop. I was just starting to use amazon to buy books and they were delivered to my front door a few days later. I stayed in touch with people using a Sony Ericsson T610 mobile phone;
- Going into 2013, Barack Obama is running for a second term. I’m permanently connected to the internet through any number of devices (kindle, tablet, TV, mobile phone, macbook pro etc). I buy books from the comfort of my couch and they are delivered instantly to my kindle. I cycle to work because it’s quicker than driving or using the bus and I stay connected with people through virtual networks stored in the cloud (the what??) or over skype;
- Sometime around 2000 there was a fairly seismic shift in population patterns globally. For the first time in world history more than 50% of people live in cities and towns rather than in rural country areas;
- 85% of people in the developed world (compared to 35% in the developing world) live within one hour of a major city;
- Regardless of whether we have reached, have yet to reach or have passed peak oil, the fact remains that there is huge volatility in energy prices. Volatility means risk and risk affects price. Therefore, the price of energy in the short to medium term is only going up;
- 80M people tweet at least once per month;
- Moore’s Law: Every 18 months computers double in power (or you can get the same computing power you have today for half the price). So, in less than a decade from now, computing power will be ~100 times more powerful or 1% of the price. Imagine an iPhone 100 times more powerful. To be honest I can’t.
So, where’s the common thread here?
Firstly, they are all trends. I’m a numbers nerd and trends and patterns are cool. These trends are, in the main, not only positively trending but they are exponentially positive.
Secondly, in our daily lives these huge trends don’t seem to be affecting us. Sure, we notice an extra few cents on a litre of diesel or my iPhone 4s is more powerful than its predecessor that was in my pocket. But day-to-day we are pretty ambivalent to these monumental global trends.
Finally, over time (5-10 years) the changes will become more pronounced and due to the exponential nature of the trends this time period itself will shorten. There will be a tipping point. The city will become too congested to drive resulting in a downward spiral in quality of life. Driving will just become too expensive and time consuming. We will be walking around with the cheapest, most powerful, most personal, most connected, multi-variable sensor device known to man in our pockets (and it will play music too).
In fact, we are already at that point, we just haven’t noticed it yet because the change has been gradual, think of the boiling frog.
We need smarter ways to get into, around and out of our cities. At Avego we have one vision of how this convergence of sensors, computational power, socialization and innovative transit management will pan out. It’s not the only vision but it’s one. Over the next few years this will play out in our larger cities resulting in a better lifestyle and commuting experience for us all. It requires some more things to line up (change in consumer mindset, government support for innovative transit) for that perfect storm but they will happen eventually. More players will enter the market, offering more options. There will be a convergence of public and private transit options resulting in a single transit network.
The result?
Commute times will be shorter, lifestyles will be better, we will connect to each other, not through networks or the cloud but by talking to the person beside you in the car.